High-Grade NPI Prices Continue to Rise, Supply and Demand Show Complex Situation [SMM Analysis]

During the week, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI (ex-factory, tax included) was 1,016.5 yuan/mtu, an increase of 15 yuan/mtu WoW. Meanwhile, the Indonesia NPI FOB index also increased by 1.9 US dollars/mtu. High-grade NPI prices continued to show a strong upward trend this week.

Supply side, domestically, as the rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, it is expected that the raw material supply for domestic smelters will increase. With the gradual recovery of profits, production is likely to rise. In Indonesia, due to frequent rainfall, the transportation and mining of nickel ore have not met expectations, leaving smelter inventories at low levels. Additionally, with some production lines entering maintenance and operating at low capacity, even with increased capacity, the overall growth in production remains limited.

Demand side, stainless steel market consumption remains weak, with spot stainless steel prices experiencing a slight drop after rising. Steel mills are cautious in purchasing raw materials, and market sentiment has pulled back. It is expected that, under the still tight supply and demand conditions, high-grade NPI prices will remain stable in the short term.

Furthermore, the average discount of high-grade NPI compared to refined nickel this week was 285.6 yuan/mtu, narrowing by 36.1 yuan/mtu WoW, indicating that high-grade NPI prices are still on the rise. The market's available resources have become even tighter, with firm upstream quotes and downstream restocking, leading to further price increases.

From the perspective of refined nickel, macro factors such as the soft data of the US economy weakening and spilling over into hard data, with multiple federal survey indicators showing companies starting to withdraw capital expenditure plans. Moreover, the slowdown in US inflation data and the overseas market continuing to trade on "recession" expectations, put pressure on the non-ferrous metals market. On the news front, the increased uncertainty regarding Indonesia's nickel resource development policies has led to market sentiment fluctuations, with current nickel prices pulling back. During the week, the narrowing of the average discount of high-grade NPI compared to refined nickel mainly came from the rapid pullback in nickel prices.

In the short term, high-grade NPI prices are affected by the weakening of spot stainless steel prices, with market sentiment being rather low. However, nickel ore prices remain firm, and with cost support from all sides, prices may stay stable. From the perspective of nickel prices, there are many bearish factors in the short term from both macro and news fronts, while the premium on nickel ore may further increase, keeping the cost center of nickel prices relatively firm. Nickel prices may pull back but the extent will be limited.

It is expected that next week, the discount of high-grade NPI compared to refined nickel may narrow slightly with some oscillation. From a cost perspective, based on the nickel ore prices 25 days ago, the loss situation for high-grade NPI smelters improved this week. In terms of raw materials, auxiliary material prices have further declined due to poor macroeconomic performance and weak pig iron demand. Nickel ore prices, however, remained stable, with limited domestic purchase volumes, maintaining steady operations. It is expected that next week, auxiliary material prices may continue to weaken, but nickel ore prices will remain stable. Under the pressure of weak stainless steel demand, high-grade NPI prices may be affected, and the losses of smelters will fluctuate rangebound.

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